North Korea

[munchingfoo]

What are everyone's opinions on this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-p ... 982874.stm

My first thought is that it's incredible that such a small, relatively poor, country can have a space vehicle.

My second thought is that we might have just arrived at the fulcrum of the seesaw that is the North Korean nuclear arms ambition. This could possibly result in the first public nuclear arms standoff since the end of the cold war, or the first nuclear arms used in anger since the end of the second world war.

[ConspiracyTheorist]

My first thought is that it's incredible that such a small, relatively poor, country can have a space vehicle.

They are poor for this reason. The Kim Jong-Il government has odd priorities.

This could possibly result in the first public nuclear arms standoff since the end of the cold war...

Well, not true really. Israel is at odds with Iran, Russia is in assertive to aggressive competition with a number of states, notable in the fomer Soviet bloc.

One standoff which was particularly nuclear and memorable for me, and I'm just a 21 year-old Scot, was this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001-2002_ ... n_standoff


If you ask me, it'll receive "condemnation" and come to fuck all, as usual. Remember, North Korea detonated a nuclear warhead a couple of years back - a major step - and that came to nothing....so.... yeah.

[ConspiracyTheorist]

Just read it didn't get into space anyway, after all the hype. EPIC FAIL hahaha

[Garnet]

What are everyone's opinions on this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-p ... 982874.stm

My first thought is that it's incredible that such a small, relatively poor, country can have a space vehicle.

My second thought is that we might have just arrived at the fulcrum of the seesaw that is the North Korean nuclear arms ambition. This could possibly result in the first public nuclear arms standoff since the end of the cold war, or the first nuclear arms used in anger since the end of the second world war.

I'm not well read up on north korea but from what i understand it does seem quite a stretch to think this could result in nuclear arms actually being used, because it wouldn't be in the interest of Kim Jong-il- then again i don't know much about his character, but he has stayed in power for quite a while so he must know something about stabilising his position and self interest. My understanding of his acquiring of nuclear weapons before was to stabilise his position as well as gain financial incentives, because once you have nuclear weapons the US and others treat you differently and can't just invade. I guess from that article my opinion's not really changed, as launching a few rockets into the sea is going to get certain nations and the UN annoyed, but I don't think it'll result in any direct action.

[munchingfoo]

Well, not true really. Israel is at odds with Iran, Russia is in assertive to aggressive competition with a number of states, notable in the fomer Soviet bloc.

To the best of the western public knowledge Iran does not have nuclear weapons (yet). It can only be a nuclear stand off if both side are capable of a successful nuclear strike.

One standoff which was particularly nuclear and memorable for me, and I'm just a 21 year-old Scot, was this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001-2002_ ... n_standoff

I wouldn't call this a nuclear standoff either. It was a conventional standoff where both sides happened to have nuclear weapons. Both sides stated publicly that they would not be the first to use nuclear weapons and I'm pretty sure that neither would, since both rely too heavily on foreign governments and investment.

During the cold war both sides had clear public nuclear agendas with a list of reasons why they would use a nuclear strike. One of NATOs more scary conditions was that the USSR should not make a conventional ground assault on western Europe. They even went as far as to bury nuclear warheads along the West German border to detonate remotely in the event of an attack.

Where did you read that it didn't get into space by the way? Is this breaking news? I've been out since my initial post.

Edit: Just read the BBC news. Whilst it is likely that rocket failed to reach orbit, the two nations who have claimed that it did not are hardly impartial. I'll go for 5% chance of success right now until a more neutral country can back up the claim.

[Hennessy]

A nuclear pre-emptive strike on North Korea is totally unthinkable, not least because the country is still technically allied with China against incursions onto it's territory, as well as a client state of Russia. The Chinese may not care much about North Korea or what happens to it, but they will care if any action, diplomatic or not, removes the buffer state between their socialist paradise and Western ideas. There is a balance of power to be maintained in that theatre that is as delicate as the complex diplomatic history between Russia and Europe.

Now, a non-nuclear strike on facilities is also, for the moment, unthinkable so early in Obama's presidency when he has yet to win effective trust from either the Russians or the Chinese. He will need a lot of political capital with them if he wants to get North Korea to back down, but I can't believe both nations seriously want North Korea firing off missiles that could go anywhere, even striking Beijing or Vladivostock.

Considering North Korea's lamentable failures in the past, I'd suspect it would take an actual strike on a nation, nuclear or not, to tip it in favour of removal of the Jong-Il dynasty, but I suspect it's replacement wouldn't be the nice friendly Westernised democracy some people assume it would be.

[jequirity]

To be honest the main reason that there haven't been any conventional strikes on N.Korea since the end of the Korean War is because of the butt-load of conventional arty N.korea has aimed at Seoul and has nothing to do with which US President is in power.

Since the adoption of AirLand Battle doctrine in the 80's Nato was geared to adopt a conventional fight up untill the point where the enemy resorted to pressing the button, rather than launching nukes once the enemy had pushed through the Fulda Gap and North German Plain. Before the 80's it probably was a given that nukes be used immediately due to the fact that it would be conventionally very very difficult to counter the Reds.