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I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby Birkin on Tue Apr 07, 2009 1:33 am

Villain runs at 44/6/1.3 over a tiny sample so it's not really relevant.

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (UTG): $10.70
CO: $10.10
BTN: $1.45
SB: $4.70
BB: $10.15

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with A J
Hero raises to $0.40, 3 folds, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85) 4 A J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.65, BB calls $0.65

Turn: ($2.15) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.40, BB raises to $2.80, Hero calls $1.40

River: ($7.75) T (2 players)
BB bets $2.10, Hero?

So I was going to fold the turn, but I figure i've got 4 outs if he's flopped the flush, and i'm guaranteed his stack if he has and I hit. I also hate tiny raises, and I'm still yet to work out what to do against them.
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby ElGeneral on Tue Apr 07, 2009 10:54 am

Suits aren't showing up but I assume from what you say that it's a monochrome flop.

I find it hard to say anything except "it's 10nl and you've flopped top 2, get it in" but I realise that's not exactly helpful. But from the look of things I'm willing to stack off here. He's unlikely to have flopped a flush and if you're laying down top 2 in situations such as this then you're losing EV without a doubt. However there are a couple of things which would make me nervous. The first is that the flop is A high - if it's monotone and he continues after your bet you can't put him on the naked A flush draw so you have to wonder whether he'd continue with another high flush card. The fact that the flop is Ace high might lend a little more credence to the idea that he's flopped a flush. Secondly, he seems to pick up some interest on the turn when the 7 should be a complete blank; this line generally means one of two things: either he's flopped something big, or he's doing some sort of bizarre multi-street bluff (floating OOP then min-CRing the turn is pretty bizarre). However, there's also a better than zero chance that the 7 has helped his hand by giving him a worse 2pair than yours. Thirdly he has a low aggression factor. I don't play 6max but given that 1.3 is really quite low for FR, I assume it's one of the lower AFs you'll see at a 6max table. Given this, the fact that he raises us would make me wonder as he might be likely to play one-pair type hands more passively given his AF; however as you say, it's over a small sample and he seems loose enough to negate this.

Overall, in a vacuum I look to get this in on the turn. I would probably bet closer to pot on the flop and I would certainly be betting close to pot on the turn. I'm shoving over his turn raise and praying he's just an idiot. The factors I mentioned above should only really be thought about if you've played the player a lot more but it seems fairly clear that you haven't. Low limit poker is all about playing ABC and getting it in when there's a good chance you're ahead; I think you're likely to be in the lead here, so you should get it in.

Also one more thing: I'm not sure thinking about the hand in terms of 'I have 4 outs to fill up if he's got the flush and I stack him if I do' is necessarily correct. You don't have the implied odds to fill up certainly, and if you shove the turn then the implied odds don't apply.
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby igisjana on Tue Apr 07, 2009 12:31 pm

I've got one for you:

Me: JJ

Flop: J 6 3 all diamonds

SB shoves under the gun with 5 times the pot...I laid it down :P
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby Patrick25 on Tue Apr 07, 2009 1:18 pm

Seriously Connor... who would shove when they flop the flush. Shoving with the nut flush draw makes sense. Not the flush.
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby Birkin on Tue Apr 07, 2009 2:14 pm

Next time against you patrick, i'm shoving with my flopped flush.

I usually go by the rule at 10NL that if I get raised on the turn, my top pair is no good. But with top 2 i find this hard to lay down. I'm not going to try and play the player here as the stats are only over a 16 hand sample, so i have no idea how he plays.

I think shoving the turn is quite spew here, as he might actually lay down a bare ace, one of the only hands on the river that we're getting value from. However, most people at 10NL seem to c/c all the way down with top pair, so I don't really see that as a huge part of his range.

His small raise on the turn does seem like a pretty big hand, the only thing we have to think about is whether its really a huge hand or just something that he percieves as huge, like a worse 2pair.

FWIW, I was soooo close to folding, but decided that was far too weak/tight. I flat and he's flopped the flush with 52s.
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby igisjana on Tue Apr 07, 2009 3:07 pm

To Patrick: Why would he shove 5 times the pot with bottom set? He's only gonna get called by hands that have im absolutely crushed and the flush draw would also lay it down when he bets the pot or twice the pot max. So either way that move didn't make any sense. So I had to chose between him shoving with the flush - doesn't make sense - or him shoving with a set - doesn't make sense either. Plus I heard Taddy say she folded 6es preflop. Not saying it's a good lay down, but I think it's not a horrible one either.
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby ElGeneral on Tue Apr 07, 2009 3:54 pm

Birkin wrote:Next time against you patrick, i'm shoving with my flopped flush.

I usually go by the rule at 10NL that if I get raised on the turn, my top pair is no good. But with top 2 i find this hard to lay down. I'm not going to try and play the player here as the stats are only over a 16 hand sample, so i have no idea how he plays.

I think shoving the turn is quite spew here, as he might actually lay down a bare ace, one of the only hands on the river that we're getting value from. However, most people at 10NL seem to c/c all the way down with top pair, so I don't really see that as a huge part of his range.

His small raise on the turn does seem like a pretty big hand, the only thing we have to think about is whether its really a huge hand or just something that he percieves as huge, like a worse 2pair.

FWIW, I was soooo close to folding, but decided that was far too weak/tight. I flat and he's flopped the flush with 52s.


Have to admit it's a long time since I've played 10nl 6 max, but when I was there you'd get a shove called with just an ace which has to form part of my decision making here. Thinking more though, flatting the turn is nice because he can bluff the river if he's bluffing and as you say c/c if he's got an ace.

Agree with your read on Baluga Theorem, IE, one pair is almost never good facing a turn raise at these limits.

I'm not folding at any point in the hand. MAAAAAYBEEEEE if he shoves the river, but even then...
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby Birkin on Tue Apr 07, 2009 3:56 pm

Chances of flopping a set ~ 8.2/1
Chances of flopping a flush ~ 220/1

If anyone flops the flush when I've flopped a set, I'm going to pay that man my maney.

A shove for 5x pot looks like someone who's afraid of letting another player draw out at a flush cheap.
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby adam on Wed Apr 08, 2009 12:23 am

@ Connor

CALL!

At worst we are 36% here (made flush), at best (up against top pair) we're 95% ahead. If he only has the Ad (most common occurence) we're 70% ahead. I'm not folding top set heads up ever (barring insanely deep stacks).
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby adam on Wed Apr 08, 2009 12:31 am

@ Nick

Call. I like how you've played the hand so far. The bet on the river is so small I call it with 2 pair. I know this looks like a value bet, but I think we're winning most of the time here (and enough to make it +ev for sure). I don't like raising against someone with those stats here though, we can't really define the range of someone who's that loose passive, and a shove puts us to aa tough decision.
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby adam on Wed Apr 08, 2009 12:39 am

Birkin wrote:Chances of flopping a set ~ 8.2/1
Chances of flopping a flush ~ 220/1

If anyone flops the flush when I've flopped a set, I'm going to pay that man my maney.

A shove for 5x pot looks like someone who's afraid of letting another player draw out at a flush cheap.


Doesn't quite work like that, as you are far more likely to be dealt 2 suited cards (12/51 - 23.5%) than you are a pocket pair (3/51 - 5.9%). Of course you then need to factor in that since you have a set (taking up one of the cards on the flop, so he only has two to make his set with) and that no one should be playing 23s etc.

Your final point is right though, unless you are very deep, getting it in with a set heads up on a 3 way board is +ev (especially at 10nl).
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby igisjana on Wed Apr 08, 2009 11:25 am

Yeah, because I KNEW at that point where I had to make my decision, that there were 3 diamonds on the flop, so it was more likely that he flopped the flush than that he flopped a set. And I wasn't 36% as I heard Taddy say to Patrick she folded pocket sixes preflop. That gave me one J, three 3s, and one 6 for the Turn and the same plus another three outs (for the turn card) on the river, that's about 23%/24%. What in the end lead me to my decision though, was that calling his shove would leave me with roughly 800 (starting stack 5000) and it was a pretty early stage in the tournament and I didn't want to be crippled so early. Probably should have called, just saying you can find some reasons for folding at that spot.
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby igisjana on Wed Apr 08, 2009 11:34 am

No here's another one, fairly easy though, but just wondered, what you would've done.
I played a SNG with 7 of my friends an we were down to 4 handed.
Me: BB with 10/4 suited
Button raises preflop to 2,5 times the BB.
SB and BB call.
Flop: 10,10,2 rainbow
SB checks, I check, Button bets 1/2 the pot, SB tanks for 30 secs and calls, I raise to 2,5 times the initial bet, Button tanks for at least 1,5 minutes and calls, the SB shoves with 2 times the pot. I fold. Button calls instantly and shows A 2 (!!!!) and SB shows 10/6. Two nines on turn and river, so I would've split the pot with the SB, still think it was a right and easy laydown on the flop. What do you think?
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby adam on Wed Apr 08, 2009 5:21 pm

@ Connor

I didn't realise the first hand was in a tournament or that it was live. I can lay this down live in the right circumstances, most of the time it goes in though.

Second hand it's hard to know what to do without blinds and stack sizes (estimates would do if you can remember). I'm almost always folding this preflop though (it's trash) even against a small raise. In the early stages we don't need to play anything but top hands, and in the later stages we don't have chips to waste that extra 1.5BB.

As played though, I like the check on a safe board like that with 3 players in the hand in a raised pot. I'd reraise more than 2.5x though, 4-5x I reckon. Wether or not I fold to the small blinds shove depends on my stack size. If I'm not committed I'll fold, if I am then I call. It doesn't sound like you're committed here (but without stack sizes and blinds I can't tell for sure) so I think the fold is the right move.

As a side note, it's best not to post the results of a hand until after people have commented on it, it will affect the responses people give.
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby igisjana on Thu Apr 09, 2009 9:39 am

It was in the early stages of the tournament and I wanted to show them, that I am going to defend my blinds with almost any hand, so that they think about raising the button, when only the blinds are left in (figured could be cheaper for me in the end). That's why I called that hand. The blind were 75/150 and we started with 5k stacks, which was also roughly what all the three of us had in that situation. Calling the all-in there would've left me either dead or massively crippled. By the time I folded I had about 1500 in chips in the pot and 3500 to 4000 left, so I figured I can fold.
Btw: Is the new High stakes episode out yet?
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby Birkin on Fri Apr 10, 2009 8:02 pm

Connor,

I'll try and make a vague hand history for you.

Dealt to hero T 4

Preflop:
1 fold, BTN raises to 400, SB calls, Hero calls

Flop (1200): T T 2

SB checks, BB checks, BTN bets 600, SB calls, BB raises 900 to 1500, BTN calls, SB raises 10000 to 14800 (all-in), BTN calls, Hero?

I guestimated the bets based on your account.
If you started the hand with ~ 5500, you've got 3600 back. If you call, your side pot is 16,500, assuming SB and BTN cover. So you're getting 4.5/1. I can't ever find a fold here, especially 4 handed. If it was full ring, and the other players were really nitty, I still don't think I can fold.

That being said, both your opponents' lines don't make a lot of sense, but definately aren't weak. Like SB c/c the original bet, then 3bet shoving over the top... it just seems really weird. The BTN cold-calling your raise, and then a 3bet too also seems strong.

I don't want to be too results orientated, but if you were in fact getting 4.5/1, then it's +EV to call against T6 and A2, you've got ~ 37% equity.

Not knowing the players at all, i've tried to come up with some sort of range here, hand 2 is BTN, and hand 1 is SB.
I've not included any bluffs here, so in reality your equity is probably higher.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,630,818 games 0.031 secs 52,607,032 games/sec

Board: Tc Td 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.327% 12.87% 17.45% 209952 284634.00 { T4s }
Hand 1: 54.861% 37.51% 17.35% 611676 283014.00 { TT, 22, T2s+, T2o+ }
Hand 2: 14.811% 14.71% 00.10% 239922 1620.00 { TT+, 22, T7s+, T8o+ }
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby Birkin on Fri Apr 10, 2009 8:03 pm

In before:

tl;dr
[x] gay
etc...
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby adam on Fri Apr 10, 2009 10:30 pm

igisjana wrote:It was in the early stages of the tournament and I wanted to show them, that I am going to defend my blinds with almost any hand, so that they think about raising the button, when only the blinds are left in (figured could be cheaper for me in the end). That's why I called that hand.


If you're doing this (and I personally don't like defending just for the sake of it, especially early on - people will have forgotten by the time defending blinds actually matters) then re-raise. If you call then your chances of taking the pot down are pretty low, and when you don't it's going to be costly. Also, calling doesn't really show much strength. If you call and take the pot down on the flop, people will just assume you had a hand.

Most of the time re-raising will take the pot down. If you re-raise and get 3-bet, tank for 20 seconds then fold and say you had JJ or something. If you get called and miss the flop just lay it down, don't turn an unsucessful bluff into one that costs most of your stack. If you hit the flop nicely, then just play it from there. I tend to make this move with suited connectors, so that if I do get called I still have a reasonable chance of connecting with the flop.
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby Birkin on Sat Apr 11, 2009 2:00 am

I agree with adam here. Also, if you show me that you're defending the blinds really light, then I'm just gonna open up even more OTB, because I could easily be ahead with a hand like K5s. If you want people to stop stealing, then 3bet.
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Re: I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

Postby igisjana on Sun Apr 12, 2009 2:41 pm

But that's gonna come back to you really quickly as you eventually will run into a very big hand in one of the blinds...either way - that is if it leads to you not attacking the blinds anymore or to you going mental preflop - I have you where I want to have you, don't I?
But I agree, that reraising is probably the better thing to do there, but I just often want to see a flop cheap and still defend my blinds, you know?
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