Election predictions

[David Bean]

I think pretty much everyone knows by now whom they hope will win the US Presidential Election on Tuesday, but what I'm interested in at the moment is whom people think actually will, and why.

I'm going to be courageous, in the 'Yes, Minister' sense, and call the election for the candidate I support, Senator John F. Kerry. Reasoning to follow.

[hr]IMAGE:www.electoral-vote.com/ev-small.png

[McK]

I think that Bush will get in again. Why? Because I want Kerry to win, and so Sod's Law dictates that the opposite will happen.

[Prophet Tenebrae]

I'm not really sure if we will feel a difference either way but on principle, Kerry is who I want to win.

However I feel as a shady colonial backwater, the US has about as much chance of having free and fair elections as there is of the Sinner being a bitch free zone.

[Atangaladhion]

Kerry,

Current tracking has it as 272 to Kerry, 266 to Bush, with more votes likely to go to Kerry than Bush in the most undecided states ( Florida, Ohio, and Minnesota )

[David Bean]

Bloody hell, you're right! Electoral-vote.com just updated whilst I was posting on my Live Journal! We might just have something here...

[hr]IMAGE:www.electoral-vote.com/ev-small.png

[MisterGrumps]

Bush will win...by hook or by crook (probably crook). Then Hilary C. can run in 2008 against a fresh Republican "newby" and win easily!!

[Zombie Sheep]

I'd like Kerry, but I just have a horrible feeling Bush will get back in - remeber, he does seem to own the supreme court.

Edited: I just checked, and Bush is 7-4 on to win, Kerry 5-4.

[hr]IMAGE:www.johnkerry.com/feeds/media/120x80.gif

[Mr Comedy]

Bush, Bush, Bush!
I want Bush to win 'cause he is awesome.

[Zombie Sheep]

some people........

[hr]IMAGE:www.johnkerry.com/feeds/media/120x80.gif

[Marco Biagi]

The problem with all the polls on electoral-vote, as they themselves agree, is that the differences are well within the statistical margin for error. There really is no way to predict the 113 electoral college votes in the 'toss-up' states. That's Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and, of course, Florida. And I still have my doubts that Ohio is necessarily swinging as clearly to the Republicans as predicted - although that is 'clearly' very much in the context of these elections.

Personally, I still think Bush will win. Barely.

Also, we're the fifth most addicted to electoral-vote.com - http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/brit ... ities.html

[Atangaladhion]

I prefer Slate.com myself, a much easier site to use (just go to Campaign 2004, election scorecard.)

[David Bean]

[s]Zombie Sheep wrote on 18:32, 31st Oct 2004:
Edited: I just checked, and Bush is 7-4 on to win, Kerry 5-4.

Excellent, I just put £10 on Kerry to win.
[hr]
IMAGE:www.electoral-vote.com/ev-small.png

[novium]

[s]Prophet Tenebrae wrote on 16:16, 31st Oct 2004:
I'm not really sure if we will feel a difference either way but on principle, Kerry is who I want to win.

However I feel as a shady colonial backwater, the US has about as much chance of having free and fair elections as there is of the Sinner being a bitch free zone.



What exactly are you saying?
Let me tell ya something- neither side is blameless, or even less guilty than the other, when it comes to election year shenanigans. And they are almost always at a lower level, by petty minded people.

[Zombie Sheep]

[s]David Bean wrote on 19:36, 31st Oct 2004:
Excellent, I just put £10 on Kerry to win.


Done the same!

[David Bean]

[s]Zombie Sheep wrote on 22:18, 31st Oct 2004:
Done the same!

If you were here, I'd shake your hand.

However, as to the reasons why I think Kerry will win, well, let's just say that I've thought about it quite a lot (not just about the polls), and it's my considered opinion.

I spent the summer in Washington DC conducting a research project on the issue of the War on Terror and its impact on this election, and in the course of that I met a wide variety of people with all manner of opinions. Now, I know that DC is the most Democratic city on earth, but the vitriol, the utter bile and hatred, of these people for their President was unbelievable. I can't think of any other incumbent history who has inspired such strength of negative feeling, especially not in such a large number of people. I even spoke to moderate Republicans who felt the same way! The worst people have to say about Kerry, by contrast, is that he's a bit bland, a bit uninspiring, and, ooh, maybe he told a couple of porkers about his war record. I think this will weigh heavily in the minds of those undecideds whose votes will decide the swing states as they go into the polling stations on Tuesday.

This polling station mentality is quite important, because oftentimes people will tell pollsters one thing about their voting intentions, but then do something entirely different. There is, for example, an awful lot of war-weariness in the US at the moment, and faced with a choice between the guy who brought them into the war and the guy who wasn't in charge when it happened, I suspect a lot of undecideds will intuitively 'plump' for the latter. I mean, come on, being a 'war president' is hardly an advantage when so many people hate you for having started the war in the first place, does it? You might as well claim that Gustavus Adolphus should have been at his most popular at the height of the Thirty Years' War!

Besides which, it's quite possible that sectors of the Republican base who are fed up of the war might not bother to show up, costing Bush's numbers, whilst Kerry supporters have every reason to head to the polls. The other thing on international politics is that Kerry actually has a better plan than Bush does, though I'm afraid I can't say how effective the campaign has been in getting the message through.

My last point concerns the state of Florida which, as we all know, went Republican in 2000 (and I don't buy any of this 'Re-defeat Bush' bullcrap that says he stole it, either). I have every reason to believe that Florida will go Democrat this time. True, the hurricanes gave Bush a good excuse to wander around the place shaking people's hands in a non-partisan capacity, but my argument concerns the crucial latino constituency. Those of Cuban origin tend to be Republican because they hate Castro and fear the Democrats to be a soft touch, and so the Cuban American community are generally a great help to the Republican vote. Trouble is, as I noted in my recent column in the Mitre, Bush has been screwing over the Cuban immigrants something rotten. He's imposed draconian limits on the funds people are allowed to send home to their relatives (I think it was pretty much a blanket ban), and restricted visitation rights only to immediate family and then only once in every two years, or something ridiculous like that. Now, I'm not arguing that this is going to make the Cubans turn away from Bush en masse, but simply that it'll be one very important reason for every Cuban American individually either to switch to Kerry or simply to stay at home and decline to help Bush out.

My second point here is that I read in the summer that there had been a large influx of Democrat-voting latinos from elsewhere in South America since 2000, who came from other parts of the USA (and mainly safe Democrat areas at that). They should bolster the Democrats' turnout there too.

That, then, is the gist of why I believe that John Kerry will be elected the next and 44th President of the United States of America.

[hr]
IMAGE:www.electoral-vote.com/ev-small.png

[yank]

I agree with David Bean. Bush has practically alienated every minority in the US, in addition to a large amount of the majority. A lot of the people that would not normally vote have registered and probably will show...like lazy ass university students. For example, some of my friends back home in Florida were so lazy in previous elections that they requested absentee ballots because they didn't want to go to the polls and then were too lazy to actually mail them in even though its free to mail. This time, however, I do believe they are actually getting off their asses and voting. So yeah, in a year where the red sox can win the world series I think Kerry should have a relatively easy time with this election...which translates to like a 1 or 2 percent win over bush.

[hr]"I am responsible to only God and history." - Francisco Franco

[Prophet Tenebrae]

What exactly are you saying?
Let me tell ya something- neither side is blameless, or even less guilty than the other, when it comes to election year shenanigans. And they are almost always at a lower level, by petty minded people.


What am I saying? I'm saying that despite the millions America might spend on attempted free elections in Iraq and Afghanistan and the hundreds of billions it might spend on war and defence, that really it's all meaningless because at the end of the day the world's "greatest democracy" will be nothing more than an autocracy, which can be bought by the side with most money.

Bah, it would be better for America to come back under colonial rule.

[Atangaladhion]

Slate have switched Florida over, now in favour of Kerry, making their tally Kerry - 299, Bush - 239, let's just hope it does go that way.

[Anon.]

[s]David Bean wrote on 01:10, 1st Nov 2004:
Now, I know that DC is the most Democratic city on earth, but the vitriol, the utter bile and hatred, of these people for their President was unbelievable. I can't think of any other incumbent history who has inspired such strength of negative feeling, especially not in such a large number of people.

Out of the vast numbers of incumbents with whose terms of office you are intimately familiar, of course.

[Eliot Wilson]

Just a guess, but I'll say Bush by a very short head, Republicans to retain control of the House, Senate split 50/50.

But I've been wrong before.

[hr]Bill and Ted beat the Grim Reaper at Twister

Bill: "You played very well, Death, especially with your totally heavy Death robes."

Death: "Don't patronise me."