McCain or Obama?

[mr strawberry fields]

Who do you think will win?

Who do you want to see win??

[Freaker]

Woohoo! A predictions thread!

Obama will win, claiming all of the Kerry states, and also Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia. I'm quite confident he will get Ohio and Florida, and hope for North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri, but doubt he will win all of them. We know things are going bad for McCain if Obama wins North Dakota and Arizona, too. McCain will win Montana. In my predicted worst case, Obama gets 291 electoral votes - in the best; 388. My guesstimate is about 330 electoral votes for Obama at the end of the night, putting him safely past the 270 needed.

I want to see Obama win, and that as clearly as possible. Not so much because all that McCain stands for is bad, and all that Obama stands for is good, but rather also because I would be apalled if McCain was rewarded for often despicable campaign tactics and irresponsible VP choice with a victory.

[Power Metal Dom]

Obama will win. Whether this will be for the better, only time will tell. I'm going for the 'anything will be better than Bush' approach. If it's a draw I nominate hypnotoad.

[LonelyPilgrim]

I hope Obama wins, and I'm cautiously optimistic. Still, it'll be a close run thing, I think. Also, Freaker, if Obama wins Indiana, I'll be numbed with disbelief. Despite the polling data, I think it'll be a cold day in Hell before my state elects a Democrat for president. Indiana has the highest per capita membership in the KKK of any state in the US, as well... I can't count the number of times I've heard people I know saying something along the lines of "Well, if he just wasn't black maybe I could vote for him..."

[Duggeh]

If it weren't for that unbearable odious Palin woman my views on the choice would be much tighter. With her one old man with heart problem away from the worlds most powerful office, I cannot bring myself to hope for McCain to win, however much I like the man and some of his beliefs.

[Haunted]

The republican ticket has made itself completely unelectable. No respectable person in clear conscience can vote for McCain/Palin.

[Senethro]

While I have always preferred that Obama should win, there were good reasons to vote for McCain until he demonstrated he had no judge of character by choosing Palin as his VP.

[Humphrey]

The republican ticket has made itself completely unelectable. No respectable person in clear conscience can vote for McCain/Palin.

Where does a lot of that earmark money end up anyway? […] You’ve heard about some of these pet projects they really don’t make a whole lot of sense and sometimes these dollars go to projects that have little or nothing to do with the public good. Things like fruit fly research in Paris, France. I kid you not.

Brilliant.

[Senethro]

Death to those who besmirch Science!

[Delts]

Obama would be my choice personally.

[Hennessy]

I like McCain and in many ways I like Sarah Palin too, but McCain strikes me as the type who has never tried to understand economics in more than just general terms, and is doggedly confident of the USA's manifest destiny to impose it's will whenever and wherever it wants to. I don't want to admit it but I think we are seeing that era slowly coming to an end. Palin's got that special something about her that appeals to the American voter (and me too as well, though I'm not sure why), and does very well at painting herself as the bolshy can-doer which the country could really use. She ain't a thinker, that's for sure, so until she proves her hype she'll be a curiousity and not much more.

I'm not convinced with Obama totally, there's unconfirmed reports that a lot of his supporters are voting for him based on the colour of his skin, not the content of his character. If anyone clinches the award for bland across-the-board statements that mean little in the long run it's Obama, but maybe that's part of the appeal. Biden is about the only one in this race who doesn't go for the "outsider" label, and he's won my respect for his quiet and controlled attitude, if Obama does win then surely he'll prove an excellent mentor.

In a nutshell, I wouldnt vote. Few of the policies, plans, strategies or deals advanced by any of the candidates are what I feel the US and the world need.

[Haunted]

I like Sarah Palin too...Palin's got that special something about her that appeals to the American voter (and me too as well, though I'm not sure why), and does very well at painting herself as the bolshy can-doer which the country could really use. She ain't a thinker, that's for sure, so until she proves her hype she'll be a curiousity and not much more.

Oh fuck off. Is that really the person you want with the codes to the nuclear arsenal of the United States? She is the biggest fucking joke of a politician. Dan Quayle will be forgotten now (and Sid Meier may change the next Civ to reflect this). Yes, of course she has some positive characteristics (everyone does) but she has absolutely zero presidential characteristics. The only people who can possibly endorse this person as capable of leading the United States are the clinically stupid and that small group of fem-nazis who went nuts for Hillary.

[Power Metal Dom]

When will we know who's won? When do the final crucial votes get counted?

[Haunted]

Florida looks like it might go blue. If it does, Obama has won.

[LonelyPilgrim]

CNN just projected Pennsylvania as an Obama win. This reduces McCain's chances dramatically. Even this early in the evening, it's now Obama's race to lose. I'm waiting on Indiana's outcome... I told someone I'd eat my shoe if Obama carried the state, and I'd rather not lose a shoe... no matter how much I want Obama to win overall.

[Craig]

Fox has called Ohio for Obama. Provided Obama keeps all of Kerry's states (which he has done so far), I believe that's it.

EDIT: Or perhaps Fox haven't. Damn this. I'm now hearing "too close to call".

[zipporah]

The BBC has Obama for Ohio ...

I am hoping for Obama myself (overall).

[Craig]

BBC has called New Mexico for Obama, which was Republican last time around. As Simon Schama just said "Can't we just call the presidency now?" Barring some coup by the GOP, I think it's pretty safe to say that Obama has it.

[zipporah]

Can someone explain to me how they make these 'projected for' calls? New Mexico was called for Obama with 3% of votes counted of which 58% were for McCain!

[LonelyPilgrim]

Can someone explain to me how they make these 'projected for' calls? New Mexico was called for Obama with 3% of votes counted of which 58% were for McCain!

Sure. They project by looking at several different criteria and synthesising it. They look at actual votes counted and reported (that's the 3%). They also take into consideration which counties are reporting - this tells them how accurate that number will be for the whole state. Then they look at exit polling, pre-election polling, and the state's voting history. Some states can be called very early by looking at all the data, others, like my own state - Indiana - are not so easy to call. I don't think they've called it yet, and last I looked we had 70% or so of the vote counted here...