Swine flu

[David Bean]

This begins as another one of those 'I can't believe we don't already have a thread', er, threads.

It is starting to look alarmingly possible that this swine flu outbreak might become a thing, and I just wanted to find out what people's thoughts and feelings about it might be. I'm trying to keep abreast of the situation as well as I can, but what's bothering me the most about it at the moment is what's killing those poor Mexicans.

It appears that where the disease has spread outwith Mexico's borders, people who have been infected are generally suffering only mildly, but in Mexico itself people who can only have been infected through contact with other humans are, to be blunt, dying. Why is this - what are we missing?

I appreciate that there may be all manner of rational explanations: maybe they caught the disease early and didn't seek treatment, or maybe the treatment was inadequate (are the Mexicans administering Tamiflu?). But I can also imagine several other, not implausible but significantly more worrying scenarios that for the avoidance of alarm I'd personally prefer not to speculate about just yet, although doubtless as this thread evolves, such speculation will multiply beyond the possibility of containment.

If you take my meaning.

[Duggeh]

I shall continue to eat bacon, drink tequila and lick feverish, sweating ill people as usual.

Thousands die from regular flu. This is just as overblown as that dead swan in Cellerdyke harbour a few years back. There hasn't been any real bad news since the earthquake in Italy so the media needs something apart from Susan Boyle to scream incoherantly about. No doubt the Daily Mail has already blamed illegal Mexican immigrants to the UK for the death of Sir Clement and The Daily Express will rally behind that, saying the cause of his death was actually swine flu but that like Dianas murder it was hushed up by Prince Phillip.

[Frank]

Pandemic prevention strikes me as a failry serious thing. However, serious =/= panic about it. It's a situation that could rapidly get 'out of control', but it's not something we need to worry about personally *now*. Remember: keep clean, don't like diseased pigs and take normal anti-disease-spreading precaution etc.

Like the bird flu and SARS before it, it's a serious threat but there's not much to actually be done about it on a personal level. Unless you happen to be in charge of larger transport hubs, public events in danger zones or the like, then you're not in much of a position to do much about it.

[orudge]

We have to be careful that swine flu doesn't combine itself with bird flu. Then we'll end up with flying pig flu...

[RandomMusings]

We have to be careful that swine flu doesn't combine itself with bird flu. Then we'll end up with flying pig flu...

ah.... so that was what I saw when I looked into the sky last night.
And there was me thinking it was fireworks or something.....

[David Bean]

Remember: keep clean, don't like diseased pigs and take normal anti-disease-spreading precaution etc.

Don't LIKE diseased pigs? How's that going to help? I should have thought at a time like this the poor fellows deserve all the sympathy they can get!

Of course I appreciate there's little point panicking about it, but there's surely nothing wrong with maintaining a healthy concern and trying to keep abreast of the situation. There's a chap on my Facebook friends list, goodness knows who he is; most of the time he seems to update his status with links to all kinds of fringe articles, but rarely any crackpot stuff, and he's brilliant at a time like this because if there's any new information out there, he finds it.

One rather optimistic fellow I saw on BBC News hypothesised that the strain may actually becoming less potent across the generations, which would explain why the newer cases, or at least the ones reported outside Mexico, seem to be less severe. Of course, being a virus one's never quite sure what it'll do next, but then the strain may not even be new, and it's been documented for well over a month now.

Nevertheless, I do find my own comparisons with the recent revival of BBC Survivors to be somewhat worrying. And why hasn't Madagascar closed its ports yet, anyway?

[jollytiddlywink]

The most plausible explanation I have seen offered for the higher mortality rate within Mexico is the possibility that the virus there is acting in concert with another infection endemic in the local population, or that it has genetically spliced itself with another virus and thus made itself more virulent. It might just be that the people it has killed in Mexico had weakened immune systems or were otherwise in an 'at risk' category--the news has given no indications about this that I have seen.
I can't say that I'm worried about this. Cars kill 400,000 people each year, and there's no vaccination to be had against that. As a young, healthy adult, normal flu doesn't make it onto my radar of things to worry about, so swine flu, while it is a bad thing and a very sad loss for the family members of those who have died in Mexico, is so statistically small as to be a non-event in terms of things to worry about. That said, we shall have to wait for events to pan out, but barring major degenerations in the situation, I can't see any worry.
I think that Frank meant 'don't lick any diseased pigs' not 'don't like any...'

[Frank]

I certainly intended to keep the theme of 'don't lick diseased pigs', but I think we could all do with a healthy dose of cynicism too: let's make sure we don't like 'em either!

Y'know the old saying: Never trust a diseased pig!

[Power Metal Dom]

We have to be careful that swine flu doesn't combine itself with bird flu. Then we'll end up with flying pig flu...

The chances are slim, pigs might fly!

I saw in the paper the other day that two Scots had brought the flu back to Scotland on their trip to Mexico ( http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8021629.stm ) but that their infection won't be fatal. If it's not fatal outside of Mexico then I'm quite happy to continue eating bacon butties and smothered pork chops

[Hennessy]

We'Re aLL gOiNg tO dIe!

[Gubbins]

I can't say that I'm worried about this. [...] As a young, healthy adult, normal flu doesn't make it onto my radar of things to worry about, so swine flu, [...] is so statistically small as to be a non-event in terms of things to worry about. That said, we shall have to wait for events to pan out, but barring major degenerations in the situation, I can't see any worry.

Quite. However, you should be aware that these strains of flu typically are most fatal among 20- to 50-year-olds. Being a young adult is actually a risk factor. Now that we have at least two cases in the south of Scotland, things might be getting a bit more serious. Still, I wouldn't start panic-buying Spam yet.

Also can't believe no-one's posted this yet:
http://www.xkcd.com/574/

[Dave the Explosive Newt]

In addition to theories about superinfection, Mexico is
a) not in possession of the world's greatest healthcare system
b) the origin of the infection, so in possession of far more many cases
c) the origin of the infection, so caught off guard unlike all the other countries reporting cases, which were ready to contain and appropriately treat them.

I don't think anything sinister is really at play.

Also, I can't believe no-one has yet made a joke about oinkment.

[LonelyPilgrim]

Also, this outbreak occurred in the midst of Mexico's regular flu season. How many milder cases have gone misdiagnosed as regular human influenza? Even with the current estimates from Mexico, which are almost certainly wrong, this thing only has a 9% fatality rate. Considering that the vast majority of cases have *probably* gone unnoticed, it's not unreasonable to assume this swine flu is equal to, or even less, mortal than regular flu.

[Gubbins]

Even with the current estimates from Mexico, [...] this thing only has a 9% fatality rate. Considering that the vast majority of cases have *probably* gone unnoticed, it's not unreasonable to assume this swine flu is equal to, or even less, mortal than regular flu.

Morbidity isn't the only factor. The current pandemic does appear to have a fatality rate of around 10%, but compare this with the circa 2.5-5% mortality of the 1918 epidemic - that one still killed anywhere between two and ten times more people than World War I. The key factor there was infectiousness. The problem comes when a very infectious virus becomes mobile, which is the reason that the WHO has just upped its status to one level below a full-blown pandemic.

Fun fact: swine flu is 24 times more virulent than bird flu in Google Wars.

[the Empress]

hmm, got an 'official' email today. Someone in Newcastle has come down with it, but the students living with them remain unaffected . . . . not really worried but kind of surprised.

[bdw]

[ct3012]

http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/flu/

Looks like the establishment is taking this seriously.

Question 1: What should I do if I have returned from a country affected by swine influenza?
Answer: Panic!

[munchingfoo]

Do you have what it takes to kill then entire population of the world?

http://www.crazymonkeygames.com/Pandemic-2.html

[Hennessy]

Do you have what it takes to kill then entire population of the world?

http://www.crazymonkeygames.com/Pandemic-2.html

You really need to start doing some work.

Good game.

[Thackary]

Can we start with the pig-puns yet?

Some students in St Andrews have suspected cases - they're breaking out in rashers.

People are treating this like the Aporkalypse.