I'm lost in a hand at 10NL

[igisjana]

But wait...I wasn't getting 4.5 to 1?!

2,5*150*3=1125 (Pot on the flop)
1125*1/2=562.5 (The bet of the Button)
562.5*2+1125=2250 (Pot after Button bet and SB called)
562.5*2.5=1406.25 (My raise)
2250+1406.25*2-562.5=4500(The pot before the SB shoved) (-562.5 obviously because we shouldn't take the button's bet of 562.5 into consideration twice, because it's already included in his call of the 1406.25 raise)

At that point I therefore had 150*2.5+2,5*562.5=1781.25 chips in the pot. When the SB shoved he made the pot 4500+4*4500=22500 of which I could've won (if we say I started the hand with 5500 in chips)

4500+(5500-1781.25)=8218.75

as I figured that the button was gonna fold there (because I put the SB on a Ten and I knew that I had one and because he didn't even really want to call my first raise) I didn't take his call to the shove into consideration.

So my odds were 8218.75/(5500-1781.25) to 1, which is about 2.21 to 1. But even if the Button calls, my odds would "only" be 3.2 to 1...where do your 4.5 to 1 come from? Or did I make a mistake here?

P.S. I know it's stupid taken fractions of a chip into consideration, but I couldn't be arsed rounding here.

[Birkin]

sorry, i thought BTN had called already for some reason. With the odds you're actually getting, its a lot closer, but i'd lean toward a call for 2 reasons:

1. He could be going mental with complete air or an overpair.
2. To show that you're willing to defend the blinds with marginal holdings.

About defending the blinds:

I hate flatting BTN raises in the BB with really marginal hands because even if you get to see a "cheap flop", you've got to play the rest of the pot OOP with no initiative. You're gonna miss the flop far too much and have to check/fold for flat callling to be +ev. If you 3bet, you're gonna get a fold a lot, but also it allows you to cbet, assuming good board texture. Not to mention the fact that if you take it down with a cbet you win a substantially larger pot.

[tiltsman_hunter]

you should all just give up poker

[igisjana]

Out of position shove=OOPS?

[Patrick25]

From now on I'm referring to all open shoves UTG of at least 150 times the big blind as a 'Gardner'.

[Birkin]

or a Scott, if its JJ

[tritus]

omg. This won't be the first time I'm saying this, but you are all shocking poker players.

Since when was this forum here?

[Don_Will]

Since about Easter time...who is this?

[tritus]

Since about Easter time...who is this?

Like, the worst player in the society ldo. Who are you?

[tritus]

I usually go by the rule at 10NL that if I get raised on the turn, my top pair is no good.

Congratulations, you have discovered Baluga theorem.

Assuming it is monochrome flop:

Lead on flop is fine.

Check behind on turn. Hand is weak relative to board texture.

Check behind/ Call River if no 4 flush.

[tritus]

Chances of flopping a set ~ 8.2/1
Chances of flopping a flush ~ 220/1

If anyone flops the flush when I've flopped a set, I'm going to pay that man my maney.

A shove for 5x pot looks like someone who's afraid of letting another player draw out at a flush cheap.

The part in bold is the difference between a losing player and a winning player.

I have to say, the analysis in this thread is acually decent, but you all have to get off your high horses and listen to others ideas. Adam ftw itt.

[igisjana]

I agree with the "listen to one another"-part. Just for the record...

But you seem to be on quite a high horse yourself...you MUST be Imran!

Miss you all and hope I'm gonna see you real soon or at least before the next USAPS championship .

BTW: Playing my first casino tournament this sunday. 100€+10€, 44 players on 4 tables, 20 min blind levels, blinds start at 25/25 and each players starts with 3000 in chips. Hope it's gonna go well, usually the competition is pretty fishy, just like me, so at least I won't have that big a disadvantage.

[Don_Will]

I was thinking the same...this has to be Imran.

[Birkin]

The part in bold is the difference between a losing player and a winning player.

Obviously Its not a watertight rule, but against 95% of the players that I regularly play against, It's completely standard. If i'm playing against an really tight, really passive player, I'd find a fold, but there aren't many like that at the stakes I play.

Oh, and hi Imran btw.

[tritus]

ya, you're right nick.

hai dere

odds on england winning ze ashes?

[Birkin]

3/1 now lee's out for potentially 2 tests.

Prediction is 3-1 australia though. hussey returns to form and panesar bowls like a robot and averages 50+.
Cook makes his first test double century and carries his bat through a faltering middle and lower order (as usual).

I'm going to 1 day of lords and 3 days of the oval test, should be fun!

[tritus]

3/1 now lee's out for potentially 2 tests.

Prediction is 3-1 australia though. hussey returns to form and panesar bowls like a robot and averages 50+.
Cook makes his first test double century and carries his bat through a faltering middle and lower order (as usual).

I'm going to 1 day of lords and 3 days of the oval test, should be fun!

May have spares for days 3,4 and 5 for lords. Need day 5 oval tickets tho. We've been on the case for ages but all gone . Only have 3 and 4.

[Birkin]

have day 3 at lords and day 1,2,3 and maybe 4 at oval. No 5 though, Aussies should have it wrapped up by then.