by tony89 on Wed Nov 18, 2009 3:59 pm
Hi mate, thanks a lot for the reply and analysis I found it very useful and I realise its pretty time consuming to do. Here is what I think about your thoughts:
Q4- I kind of disagree, I think once I raise he will play pretty straightforward regardless of raise size. If he was bluffing he will fold and if not he will call and we have achieved the same for cheaper. Even most fish are not so spazzy as to bet/3bet with air in this spot early on.
KK- yeah agreed completely.
AQJ - yup I agree it wasnt a very good spot to c bet. My turn/river bets were maybe a bit of fancy play syndrome as at these stakes its usually not that smart to try and get someone off their hand when their range comprises a lot of 2 pair hands (even if the relative strength vs what i'm repping is just a bluff catcher.) Also, I think maybe I should have changed plans on this river as it does improve his hand fairly often A10 J10 Q10 are all very reasonable for him to have. Meh I don't know I'm pretty undecided about whether I like my play here.
K10 - with hindsight I actually disagree. I think the small bet was good with the straight vs my first opponent. But in this situation, the villain most likely has: a flush, qx, 6x, bluff(ace of diamonds high probably.) These are all hands he probably thinks are strong enough to call a bet regardless of the size with (apart from ace high obviously) and I don't think the bet size will really induce too many bluffs in this specific spot as I did at the time.
Q9 - I agree completely about keeping barrelling range merged as a general theoretical consideration although Im not sure its too relevant in the average game. I don't really follow why "removing all good hands from my range" would be a problem when checking the turn... My main consideration in this spot would be 1. is the opponent going to be stubborn with 10x on the turn but more likely to fold it if I check turn/bet river. 2. is he the type (usually a fish) to try some wacky reverse float and call flop and lead river as a bluff when I check turn showing weakness. Given this opponent I agree turn is probably closer to a bet than check.
88 - calling flop, then leading the turn here is kind of interesting as it might get more value from a person who (unlike the opponent) is pot controling with 7x on the turn. However, it kind of over reps our hand as 4x and I would expect it to get a tonne of respect the first time we do it.
KJ - I don't agree that he would lead the turn very often with Qx. I don't necessarily think it would be a bad play with say AQ if he happened to flat preflop as I will pot control this turn a lot. However, donking into the person who has the betting initiative is really not too common a play from an average regular and I would expect 90% of players to take this line with qx hands. I agree he can have counterfeited pairs sometimes but i think calling is pretty optimistic in this spot so would just fold.
Thanks again for taking the time to watch/analyse, let me know if you disagree with what I'm saying here. Also, if you can be bothered making a video is a pretty useful way to improve your game, and if you posted it here I would return the favour of watching/analysing. I use the program camtasia, theres a free trial and its pretty easy to use but if you are interested but can't work it out, let me know and I'll show you how it works.
Cheers, Tony.