SNP Victory in Glasgow East

[macgamer]

Comments on the SNP victory in Glasgow East?

I'm no huge fan of the SNP, or Labour for that matter. However I cannot but admire the SNP's victory.

How much of their victory is due to a protest vote, is unclear. Although I'm quite happy for the electorate of Glasgow East protesting against Labour on my behalf.

This result should hopefully get Labour shocked out of complacency and take away some of the cabinet's smug arrogance.

[Mr Comedy]

I don't think they are arrogant - they are all pretty aware that they are staring down the barrel of an absolute killing in the next election.


[hr]

"I am in no way interested in immortality, but only in the taste of tea. " -Lu Tung

[ascii]

Quoting macgamer from 10:33, 25th Jul 2008
Comments on the SNP victory in Glasgow East?

I'm no huge fan of the SNP, or Labour for that matter. However I cannot but admire the SNP's victory.

How much of their victory is due to a protest vote, is unclear. Although I'm quite happy for the electorate of Glasgow East protesting against Labour on my behalf.

This result should hopefully get Labour shocked out of complacency and take away some of the cabinet's smug arrogance.

The turnout was higher than expected, which suggests it wasn't just a protest vote. It's one thing to sneak through when disgruntled Labour voters stay at home, but this time the SNP managed to get some of them to switch. Not everyone voted for Mason because they want independence, but separation didn't seem to scare voters from the SNP either.

My question for all the unionist, rightwing leaning sinners, of which I know there's a few, is this: can you really look forward to a Labour washout at the next election, when they are perhaps the only party that can keep the UK in its current shape? Well done to the Goldie's Conservatives for coming third, but it doesn't look like Scotland will turn blue at the next election. Friction between Holyrood and Westminster can only grow as money gets tight, and the Conservatives don't have a convincing answer to Barnet or the WLQ.

[WashingtonIrving]

I don't like the attempt to blame it all on Gordon Brown, in Scotland anyway it is Labour that people have turned against, not their leader. Which, given how the Scottish Labour party have conducted themselves in the last few years - does anybody recall their fiasco of a Holyrood election campaign, which essentially consisted of saying the SNP were rubbish - is entirely deserved.

The SNP have a problem though. I'll probably vote for them at the next election but I have no desire for independence. I just feel they do a better job of running Scotland as part of the UK. I imagine a lot of people feel similarly. If, as they say they are committed to, there is a referendum which they lose, where do they go from there?

If Labour can't win in a place like Glasgow East, where can they win?

I think its also interesting that, in Scotland, the Conservatives are still as un/popular as ever. A sign that the switch to the Tories is really just a case of 'they aren't Labour and they are the only reasonable alternative' (whereas in Scotland we have the SNP)? Or just strong remaining antipathy towards the Conservative party in Scotland? I suppose, like a lot of my generation of Scots, I'm "genetically hardwired" to hate the Tories.

[hr]

"I said farewell honey, I'll see you Judgment Day"

[Frank]

I don't entirely agree with the other posters, but I'd say our 'mutual disagreement' is reflective of the opinions I encounter daily. Folks are at a stage where the 'blame game' isn't a terribly productive game to be playing. Gordon Brown surely can't be to blame for everything, neither can 'Labour', but I do think there is merit in 'shaking up' the political system.

I suspect that, more'n anything there's going to be a change, like it or not. As much as I personally think and feel that it's not Gordon Brown (or his cabinet's) fault for most of what's going on, I can hardly expect that fact alone to carry them through.

For me, the most worrying factor is that within Scotland the SNP will become the predominant stronger player whilst in Westminster, the blue-waterfall will come on and we'll have just that...a Tory Westminster. BUt on those terms I can't (favourably) see the Scottish populace being happy with a Tory Britain and similarly neither can I see the rest of such a Britain being terribly happy with an SNP-ran Scotland.

And then you'd factor in all the exceptions to those rough suggestions!

Suffice, the combined mutual antagonism, reasonable or not, will surely be a bad situation to be in. But even with how things are just now, I can't see how they'll turn out differently in the future. Blue Britain and Yellow Scotland? It's a daunting possibility.

[hr]

"There is only ever one truth. Things are always black or white, there's no such thing as a shade of grey. If you think that something is a shade of grey it simply means that you don't fully understand the situation. The truth is narrow and the path of the pursuit of truth is similarly narrow."
Also, some years later:
"here we are arguing about a few uppity troublemakers with a bee in their bonnet and a conspiracy theory."

[Anon.]

I don't know why everyone seems to assume Labour will lose the next general election. Everyone thought John Major was going to lose in approximately similar circumstances in 1992, but he didn't. Though Labour are unpopular I still don't think the Conservatives are yet perceived as a viable enough alternative as a party of Government. My guess is we're stuck with Labour for a few more years yet.

[lissy]

can you really look forward to a Labour washout at the next election, when they are perhaps the only party that can keep the UK in its current shape?

Are you suggesting it is in good shape? I think I'd rather it didn't keep going the way it is!

[Hennessy]

Quoting washingtonirving from 11:55, 26th Jul 2008


Or just strong remaining antipathy towards the Conservative party in Scotland? I suppose, like a lot of my generation of Scots, I'm "genetically hardwired" to hate the Tories.

[hr]

"I said farewell honey, I'll see you Judgment Day"

I like the fact that Labour are getting whipped in Scotland, but I don't want the SNP in at Holyrood and the Tories in at Westminster, because the mutual antipathy between the two would surely cause a rupture in the Union, a growing number of Tories are beginning to suspect regional parliaments are a pain in the arse not worth having, especially as Scotland has voted for one party consistently since the 1950's, even through the socialist/communist mania of Michael Foot and his "longest suicide note in history". With that kind of hardline leftist rump perhaps the union is finished if the above scenario plays out, as no national party like Labour or especially the Tories is going to compromise it's largest base of voters (England) to concentrate on a country with one tenth of the population who seem never to have fallen out of love with gratuitous public spending.


The perception (remember I said perception) that Scotland receives more and spends more than the rest of the country is rampant in England, and looking purely at the figures it is correct, may I say. A Government Expenditure and Revenue in Scotland (GERS) report in 2006 illustrated that Scotland spends equivalent to 50% of it's GDP in public money, and collects 40% of that GDP in taxes. One columnist in the Guardian pegged it memorably by writing that "Scotland currently enjoys Scandinavian levels of public spending with American levels of tax".

The new and growing idea amongst those calling themselves "English nationalists", and there seem to be a depressing amount of them frothing about last time I was home, is that Scotland is welcome to the North Sea oil fields, whose revenue the SNP say will plug the £11bn pa deficit currently paid for by the rest of the Union. The oil fields peaked production at 3.5 million barrels per day in 1999, and are declining. Revenue from them in 2005 were £5.2bn. Quite what the SNP are going to do for cash immediately following independence when sovereignty is debated at length and new boundaries painstakingly drawn up seems never to come up, perhaps people assume the SNP are going to take over the fields overnight via osmosis, or with what's left of the black watch. I do hope it doesnt mean war, I'd have to fight for the English and grow a little moustache and say "tally ho" and "by jove" all the time. Presumably blue paint is out too on the Scottish side, Mel might not be so keen on a modern battlefield either.

Anyway, the gist is that the numbers don't add up, but I'm sure if you've bothered to read this far you've heard all this before and it's just rehashed labour propaganda. The SNP probably has some nice counter-arguments for you read so you can feel re-assured and calm.

Anyway, I like the Union as it is, and don't really care about the numbers as they are, but growing numbers of people are reversing that trend by disliking the Union as it is, and starting to really care about the numbers, on both sides of the border.

Add to that ridiculous tribalist statements like "I'm genetically hardwired to hate Tories" (another Guardian reference?) and it all looks pretty gloomy for the four kingdoms.

EDITED FOR DRYNESS AND SMALL FURRY ANIMALS 28/07/2008
[hr]

"What happened to Spoon?"
"There is no Spoon"
Dog Soldiers

[Delts]

Three kingdoms unless you are counting Fife or something, Wales is just a lowly principality ;P

[hr]

Quotes: For when you can think of nothing to say yourself.

[KateBush]

I for one am immensely proud that this constituency took the stand that it did. I think it sends a very powerful message to the rest of Scotland too.

Scotland will become independent within the next ten years.

(edited for sticky spacebar on Aberdeen University campus computer)
[hr]

Intelligence can leap the hurdles which nature has set before us- Livy

[househunter]

How do you feel that every poll conducted in Scotland always points to the fact that most Scots want to remain in the UK?

[Scroggs]

I don't think I've seen a poll which shows majority support for the Union (N.B. I'm not saying that they don't exist). All the polls I've seen show low level of Yes vote but always a below 50% No vote too. The rest is made up of Don't Know votes. Yet these always seem to be assumed to be No votes by another name.

I'm not saying that there is a majority for Independence but I don't think the result is as safe as Labour would like to believe.

(Small aside: I've always found it hypocritical that according to the Lib Dems we have a democratic right to a referendum on the Lisbon treaty but for some reason not on Independence)

[Frank]

Quoting Scroggs from 21:44, 29th Jul 2008
(Small aside: I've always found it hypocritical that according to the Lib Dems we have a democratic right to a referendum on the Lisbon treaty but for some reason not on Independence)

Whilst I lean typically towards Lib Dems on most issues, I'd quite agree here. One is about 'evolution' the other about 'devolution', though it's entirely possible I've missed a serious set of information regarding the issues.

[hr]

"There is only ever one truth. Things are always black or white, there's no such thing as a shade of grey. If you think that something is a shade of grey it simply means that you don't fully understand the situation. The truth is narrow and the path of the pursuit of truth is similarly narrow."
Also, some years later:
"here we are arguing about a few uppity troublemakers with a bee in their bonnet and a conspiracy theory."

[Hennessy]

Quoting Delts from 00:20, 29th Jul 2008
Three kingdoms unless you are counting Fife or something, Wales is just a lowly principality ;P

[hr]

Quotes: For when you can think of nothing to say yourself.

I always count Fife, the most royal and ancient of kingdoms.

Perhaps we should devolve the monarchy a bit more, make scotland a principality.

You could have Prince Edward. We won't miss him.

[hr]

"What happened to Spoon?"
"There is no Spoon"
Dog Soldiers

[Bob]

Quoting Hennessy from 23:31, 28th Jul 2008

...Scotland receives more and spends more than the rest of the country...and looking purely at the figures it is correct, may I say...

What a load of s***. It is common knowledge that Scotland receives more from the government per head, and that is because the country generates higher revenue per head.

The directly generated oil revenue is around £14 billion this year and is not declining. This is far higher than the peak you suggested. New drilling techniques are forever increasing the amount of accessible oil.

Furthermore the indirect revenue from the oil industry is vast. The North-East of Scotland is full of very high earners (Oil company employees) paying large amounts of income tax and supporting the economy. Aberdeen is the 'oil capital of Europe' and oil related service companies generate vast amounts of revenue and export services on a global scale.

Scotland generates revenue from other industries such as whiskey and tourism. Although you may be completely ignorant to the scale of these industries they are large.

A recent report by accountancy firm Grant Thornton shows an Independent Scotland would have a budget surplus of at least £4.4 billion.

[Hevelius]

Quoting Bob from 13:48, 1st Aug 2008

Scotland generates revenue from other industries such as whiskey and tourism.

I wasn't aware Scotland made any money from whiskey. Whisky on the other hand...

[Anon.]

Quoting Hennessy from 15:58, 30th Jul 2008
I always count Fife, the most royal and ancient of kingdoms.

Pshaw.

There's more and earlier evidence for Strathclyde as an independent "kingdom" than for Fife.

[Bob]

Is correcting spelling most constructive comment you have to make?

It's like in the playground when some kids just turn to fighting - on the message boards some people just end up correcting spelling mistakes. How imaginative.

[Gordon Brown]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4n--IXg6HY