Swine flu

[Power Metal Dom]

http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/flu/

Looks like the establishment is taking this seriously.

Question 1: What should I do if I have returned from a country affected by swine influenza?
Answer: Panic!

Family name begins with: A - God

Not even God is safe from pig aids!

[Hennessy]

http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/flu/

Looks like the establishment is taking this seriously.

Question 1: What should I do if I have returned from a country affected by swine influenza?
Answer: Panic!

Family name begins with: A - God

Not even God is safe from pig aids!

An Action Group made up of key university and student personnel is meeting regularly to monitor the situation, keep contingency plans under review and advise on appropriate actions for our community in St Andrews.

What if they get the flu?

[Colleen]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8032403.stm

A 'probable case' in Fife. Anyone been to Vegas recently?

[-M-]

BIO SOC IS HOLDING A TALK NEXT MONDAY ON SWINE FLU. IF you are intrested in knowing what is actualy going on be sure to come the guy who is giving it is quite a big deal.

[CheeseDaddy]

OK I SHALL TRY TO BE THERE BUT I CANT PROMISE ANYTHING AS I AM QUITE BUSY THESE DAYS

Pig flu.... its what everyone's shouting about.....

[munchingfoo]

You really need to start doing some work.

I think you are confusing me with someone who has exams

[munchingfoo]

IF you are intrested in knowing what is actualy going on be sure to come the guy who is giving it is quite a big deal.

[jollytiddlywink]

Bump!

I'm still not worried much about this.

[Gubbins]

I'm still not worried much about this.

Unless you have (or are worried about someone who has) serious underlying health problems, there's no real reason to worry. The virus currently kills somewhere between 1 in 200 and 1 in 250 people, with others displaying comparatively-mild symptoms. There is a small, but finite risk that this could change if it combines with other, more-lethal flu variants.

That said, the statistics are still quite frightening: UK cases are rising faster than exponentially - and over 1 in 10,000 people have had it already. By the end of August, we could be looking at 100,000 cases and 400-500 deaths per day, reaching perhaps 100,000 deaths in total. Worldwide, these could be over 100 times more, due to the poorer level of health and healthcare in many developing countries. This depends on how well the successful the spread of the virus is.

So perhaps don't worry for yourself, but it might be just about time to make sure your granny's flu jab is up-to-date.

[Power Metal Dom]

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17396-tamiflu-resistance-emerges-in-flu-pandemic.html

Woe be unto this world! The end is nigh!

[jollytiddlywink]

I'm still not worried much about this.

Unless you have (or are worried about someone who has) serious underlying health problems, there's no real reason to worry. The virus currently kills somewhere between 1 in 200 and 1 in 250 people, with others displaying comparatively-mild symptoms. There is a small, but finite risk that this could change if it combines with other, more-lethal flu variants.

That said, the statistics are still quite frightening: UK cases are rising faster than exponentially - and over 1 in 10,000 people have had it already. By the end of August, we could be looking at 100,000 cases and 400-500 deaths per day, reaching perhaps 100,000 deaths in total. Worldwide, these could be over 100 times more, due to the poorer level of health and healthcare in many developing countries. This depends on how well the successful the spread of the virus is.

So perhaps don't worry for yourself, but it might be just about time to make sure your granny's flu jab is up-to-date.

1 in 250? Where did you get that number from? According to the BBC, Britain has had 7447 confirmed cases, and 7 deaths, which works out to a little below 1 in 1000.

I'm still not worried. The mortality rate across the UK suggests that it isn't much to worry about, especially as there are now mitigating factors on both ends to suggest that a simple 'deaths/confirmed cases' equation gives too high a mortality rate. Reports indicate that those who have died already had underlying health problems, and in at least one case, having the flu may have been entirely incidental to death. Secondly, there are an unknown number of unconfirmed cases in the UK, which will have been milder than the confirmed cases. Both of these mean the deathrate is lower than 1 in a 1000. Allowing for some people who won't ever catch the flu in the first place, I have to say that 1-1000 odds don't seem anything like Armageddon.

[Gubbins]

1 in 250? Where did you get that number from? According to the BBC, Britain has had 7447 confirmed cases, and 7 deaths, which works out to a little below 1 in 1000.

The "1 in 250" is a global average, based on the WHO statistics. It's actually a 0.45 +/- 0.02% mortality rate, which works out at 1 in 220. With only 7 deaths, the UK's is 0.094 +/- 0.036%, which is much less. Note, however, that the history of the illness is much shorter in the UK, thus we may still be a few deaths short (remember it was only three deaths the other day!).

I'm still not worried. The mortality rate across the UK suggests that it isn't much to worry about, especially as there are now mitigating factors on both ends to suggest that a simple 'deaths/confirmed cases' equation gives too high a mortality rate. Reports indicate that those who have died already had underlying health problems, and in at least one case, having the flu may have been entirely incidental to death. Secondly, there are an unknown number of unconfirmed cases in the UK, which will have been milder than the confirmed cases. Both of these mean the deathrate is lower than 1 in a 1000. Allowing for some people who won't ever catch the flu in the first place, I have to say that 1-1000 odds don't seem anything like Armageddon.

I'm not saying there is cause to worry - certainly not for yourself. The only people that should really be concerned are those with underlying health problems - I believe all the related deaths have been in already-unwell individuals. For young, healthy people, the mortality odds are probably closer to 1-1,000,000 than 1-1000. However, those who are very elderly, infirm, already hospitalised or even heavily pregnant may find their odds closer to, say, 1-30, than 1-1000.

Remember also that we are now probably only seeing the tip of the iceberg. Currently only 1 in 9000 of the population has been infected: some estimates put forward by the government could see the final number as high as 1 in 3. Even with 1-1000 odds, that's still 23,000 dead. If the virus interacts with a more lethal strain, or becomes resistant to Tamiflu on a large scale, this number will rise substantially. My conclusion: don't panic... unless you're already ill!